Reports

Birguid’s research is conducted to uncover opportunities for our growing list of clients at a regional, national, segment, product and service level. We’re excited about emerging markets and continue to explore and discover opportunities that will contribute to further growth for these regions over the short, medium- and longer term.
Unpacking the Africa Continental Free Trade Area Agreement Abstract
Overview:

In May 2019, African leaders launched the African Continental Trade Area (AfCFTA) with the intention of uniting 1.5 billion people and ushering in a new development era within the continent. A free trade area is an area formed by reciprocal multilateral agreements,

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where two or more nations agree to limit or eliminate all import tariffs and duties between them. AfCFTA presents opportunities for African countries to help each other grow economically through regional co— operation and integration as previously attempted through regional economic communities (RECs).

The integration anticipated under the AfCFTA aims to unlock manufacturing potential and facilitate industrialisation in Africa while driving economic growth and creating employment. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), free trade zones serve as a focus for infrastructure development which is considered necessary for export— oriented activities. Infrastructure contributes to economic growth by reducing the cost of production and transport of goods and services, increasing productivity, creating indirect positive externalities (such as the availability of utilities) and improving quality of life.

Birguid forecasts that the AfCFTA will propel the African economy towards the easy and quick facilitation of people and goods. However, more needs to be done from a policy development standpoint. The AU should learn more from European Union or the United States Mexico Canada Trade Area on how to successfully roll out regional integration initiatives. The failures and successes of the EU and USMCA can be leveraged to develop a winning formula, specific to the strengths and needs of the African economy.

Our research uncovers the trends and future potential regional integration in Africa with the aim of enabling market participants and investors to identify and understand the opportunities that may arise from its implementation.

The report includes:
  • Africa’s key economic indicators and intra—continental trade statistics
  • Background of the Africa Continental Free Trade Are Agreement
  • Architecture of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area Agreement
  • Policy development timeline of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area Agreement
  • Case study of the European Union Trade Area
  • An analysis of drivers and restraints of intra—continental trade
  • Five—year forecasts of trends and growth in intra—continental trade (2020—2024)
  • Analysis of key trade partners
  • Analysis of key projects and investments that will facilitate regional integration and trade
  • Conclusions and recommendations to be implemented during the forecast period (2020—2024)
Why buy this report
  • Gain competitive intelligence about intra—continental trade in Africa
  • Track key trends, opportunities, and challenges
  • To better understand the changes that the AfCFTA will bring and how it will affect growth
  • Inform policy development and implementation
  • Inform infrastructure development strategies
  • Inform supply chain development strategies within critical economic sectors
  • Inform business strategy and market development
  • Inform partnerships and collaborations with private sector and development finance institutions
  • Inform investment decisions
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SA Craft Beer Market Analysis Abstract
Overview:

Throughout 2018, there has been a lot of speculation on the oversaturation and subsequent decline of interest in South Africa's craft beer market. The market has changed over years characterised by an increase in competition, improved beer quality and the implementation of innovative practises to maintain market success.

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With the hype in craft beer spreading at a national level, established microbreweries will have to expand their production capacity to tap into those opportunities, thus steadily shifting to mainstream beer. Corporate beer producers on the other hand have resorted to acquiring struggling craft beer brands and businesses to tap into the niche market through already established craft beer brands

Our research uncovers the latest market trends and future potential of the craft beer market in South Africa with the aim of enabling market participants and investors to identify and understand competitive threats and make informed, viable decisions.

The South African Craft Beer Market report includes:
  • Market size of the South African Craft Beer Market (2018)
  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Regional segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic craft beer output volumes and revenue generated
  • Key craft brewery and brand market shares
  • Five-year forecasts of market trends and market growth (2019-2024)
  • Strategic recommendations to be implemented during the forecast period (2019-2019)
  • Market research methodology, conducted in-country
Why buy this report
  • Gain competitive intelligence about the market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threads
  • To better understanding the regulatory changes within the industry and how they will affect growth
  • Inform marketing, brand, corporate strategy and market development
  • inform sales and supply functions
  • inform investment decisions
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SA Fintech Market Analysis Abstract
Overview:

South Africa’s financial services industry has witnessed reform in ways in which traditional financial services interact with consumers. Part of this reform has come from the advances made in the country’s financial technology (FinTech) sector.FinTech is revolutionising the financial services industry as hundreds of start-ups design new and innovative financial

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products and services for customers, challenging the status quo. Our report seeks to unpack the industry’s impact on the financial services sector and other relevant markets.

Our research uncovers hidden opportunities while highlighting the competitive threats and challenges associated with the opportunities. Our aim is to enable South African FinTech companies to design their corporate strategy with the future in mind. This will also empower them to make informed, viable decisions. In addition, our research will provide investors and other relevant stakeholders with qualitative and quantitative insights on the potential of the South African FinTech market

The South African FinTech Industry report includes:
  • Market size and dynamics (2018)
  • Analysis of key competitive factors
  • Key market participants and their market shares
  • Five-year forecasts of market trends and market growth (2019-2024)
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country
Why buy this report
  • Gain competitive intelligence about the market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threads
  • To better understanding the regulatory changes within the industry and how they will affect growth
  • Inform marketing, brand, corporate strategy and market development
  • inform sales and supply functions
  • inform investment decisions
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SA Microfinance Market Analysis Abstract
Overview:

South Africa’s unbanked population increased in 2018 due to several corporate restructuring initiatives, layoffs and retrenchments which are set to continue in the immediate future. Consequently, up to a third of the population rely on microfinance products and lines of credit to sustain their

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livelihoods and cover necessities such as Food/emergency (47%), transport (11%), building /renovating/buying house (11%), Bills (9%), giving to family member (6%), education (9%), to buy motor vehicle (7%).

Why buy this report?

This report provides an informed opinion on the state and future of South Africa’s microfinance industry. The sector’s key services include but are not limited to loans, insurance, and savings deposits. The report begins with an overview and an understanding of the sector’s market dynamics to provide proper context on the industry’s challenges and opportunities. The report goes on to quantify the market including a historic review of how the market has grown over the last few years and what has contributed to the growth. Profiles of key industry participants follow with a market share analysis that provides insights on who the sector’s key players are from a revenue, innovation and key developments standpoint. Our report also provides forecasts and concludes with key recommendations for participants and stakeholders.

One of the report’s key recommendations is the need for microlenders to offer an all-in-one lending solution that includes funding for start-up businesses, insurance, education funding, and funding for unforeseen emergencies. In addition, flexibility and the ability to give individual attention to customers are key differentiators that microlenders can adopt to set themselves apart from competitors. With increasing digitisation, microlenders can partner with telecom companies to digitise transactions and lessen reliance on cash helping MFIs to reduce cost from both a supplier and customer’s perspective

Use Birguid’s South African Microfinance Market Analysis to answer the following questions:
  • Who is the target market for micro lenders?
  • What is the size of the market?
  • What is the breakdown by province for demand?
  • What differentiates micro financiers from established lending institutions?
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Tanzania Economic Review Report 2019 Abstract
Overview:

Located on the east coast of Africa and south of the equator, Tanzania is the continent’s main tourism destination. The country comprises of mainland, Tanganyika, and the archipelago of Zanzibar. Dodoma is its official capital, although Dar es Salaam,

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the largest city and port, has long been the nation’s commercial and administrative centre. Overall, Tanzania has succeeded in maintaining political stability and economic growth. However, further collaboration between the public and private sectors is required to support the continued development of the country’s broad-based socio-economic development.

Real GDP growth was an estimated 6.6% in 2018, down from 7.1% in 2017. The services sector was the main contributor to GDP (39.3%). Drivers of the country’s economic growth in 2018 included a stable inflation rate and high gross official reserves. The external sector stymied economic growth as the current account deficit increased (despite the real depreciation of the Tanzanian shilling), due to a higher volume of imports in 2018 when compared to 2017. The increased imports included transport equipment, building and construction materials, industrial raw materials, and petroleum products for large public investment projects, such as the Standard Gauge Railway.

The fiscal deficit increased to an estimated 3.9% of GDP in 2018, due to increased capital spending on infrastructure projects. Public debt increased to an estimated 39.3% of GDP in 2018 from 38.2% in 2017. External debt accounted for about 74.9% of total public debt and the risk of debt distress remains low due to public external debt (34.5% of GDP) being concessional.

In the short-term (2019-2020), growth is projected at 6.6% supported by large infrastructure spending. Headline inflation is expected to marginally increase to 5.2% in 2019 and 5.1% in 2020 due to increased government spending. Challenges to the country’s economic growth during the forecast period (2019 – 2024) include slow budget implementation, slow progress towards inclusive growth, infrastructure bottlenecks, vulnerability to climate change and a restrictive business environment. In addition, economic policy uncertainty and increased domestic arrears could derail the government’s fiscal consolidation and stifle private sector growth.

Our report provides an overview of Tanzania’s economy and a summary of political risks to be navigated between 2019 and 2024. It also highlights the most viable opportunities in the country with the aim of enabling investors to identify and understand competitive threats and make informed, feasible investment decisions.

The Tanzania Economic Review Report:
  • Political analysis (2017/2018)
  • Economic analysis (2017/2018)
  • A breakdown of the key economic sectors (2017/2018)
  • Growth drivers and restraints for each critical sector (2019 – 2024)
  • Five-year forecasts of economic growth and opportunity trends (2019-2024)
  • Strategic recommendations to be implemented during the forecast period (2019-2024)
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Rwanda Economic Review Report Abstract
Overview:

Rwanda is a sovereign state in central and east Africa. Located a few degrees south of the Equator, Rwanda is bordered by Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Rwanda’s economic growth of 7.2% in 2018 is attributed to the improved performance in key economic sectors that

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include agriculture, real estate, Information, and Communication Technology (ICT) and manufacturing. Other factors contributing to the country’s economic growth include, the government’s focus on policy reform in business registration and operation, property registration and vesting of rights, and the improvement of investment processes. In terms of social developments, Rwanda has translated its strong economic growth into reduced poverty and improved income equality. The poverty rate fell from 56.7% to 45% in 2017/2018, driving the country closer to its goal of becoming a middle-income economy, with improved and sustainable standards of living.

The Rwandan economy is expected to grow by more than 7% per year between 2019 and 2024 supported by export growth resulting from the implementation of the “Made in Rwanda” policy, public and private investments, and the country’s strong record of implementing reforms to achieve its goal of economic transformation. Based on this, the country will emerge as a self-sustaining economy deriving most of its economic growth solutions from internal sources, particularly, the private sector. Rwanda’s bold policy reforms present an opportunity for increased investment (foreign and local) in irrigation and mechanisation, residential and commercial expansion projects, digitisation and improved internet access, agro-processing and other value addition projects in the manufacturing sector. Fiscal policy will continue to aim at prudent borrowing and fiscal consolidation to keep external debt sustainable. The fiscal deficit is projected to decline to 3% between 2019 and 2024, reflecting rational borrowing practices and increased domestic resource mobilisation.

Our report provides an overview of the business environment in Rwanda and a summary of political risks to be navigated between 2019 and 2024. It also highlights the most viable opportunities in the country with the aim of enabling key sector participants and investors to identify and understand competitive threats and make informed, feasible decisions.

The Rwanda Economic Review Report:
  • Political analysis (2017/2018)
  • Economic analysis (2017/2018)
  • A breakdown of the key economic sectors (2017/2018)
  • Growth drivers and restraints for each critical sector (2019 – 2024)
  • Five-year forecasts of economic growth and opportunity trends (2019-2024)
  • Strategic recommendations to be implemented during the forecast period (2019-2024)
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Ethiopia Targets Economic Expansion Through Industry & Service Sector
Overview:

From a population perspective, Ethiopia is Africa's second largest country and is home to just over 110 million inhabitants, The nation has come out of a period marked with political and social instability which stifled the nation's growth potential.

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Protests for social and political reforms in 2016 resulted in the government declaring a state of emergency. the protests continued until the resignation of the prime minister in 2018 and election of prime minister abiy ahmed ali.

The new Prime Minister has been at the forefront of instituting c1 raft of changes in the Ethiopian economy such OS infrastructure development and C1 drive to modernise the economy. These reforms have resulted in Ethiopia recording high growth rates, including on expansion of 9.2% in 2018.

Historically, agriculture has been the mainstay of the Ethiopian economy, but the state has started to witness diversification evidenced by the services sector accounting for 36.5% of the country's 2018 GDP. Agriculture ranked second with 31.2% and industry, third with 27.3%. Going forward, Ethiopia's government is prioritising industry sector expansion and has invested in expanding the manufacturing base through the development of industrial parks which are aimed at attracting foreign investment. Funding for the establishment of the industrial parks has been through concessional funding from the World Bank and loans from Saudi Arabia, Chino, the United States, India and Turkey.

Infrastructure development by the Ethiopian government to cover backlogs have provided impetus for growth of the construction sector and offer sizeable opportunities for raw material and construction material suppliers. Chino (government and corporates) are currently key partners for the financing and roll out of infrastructure projects within Ethiopia.

Our report provides an overview of Ethiopia's economy and a summary of political risks to be navigated between 2019 01nd 2024. It also highlights the most viable opportunities in the country with the aim of enabling investors to identify and understand competitive threats and make informed, feasible investment decisions.

The Ethiopia Macroeconomic Review Report covers:
  • Political analysis (2017/2018)
  • Economic analysis (2017/2018)
  • A breakdown of the key economic sectors (2017/2018)
  • Growth drivers and restraints for key sectors (2019 — 2024)
  • Major projects and profiles of project participants in the key sectors (2019—2024)
  • Strategic recommendations for market opportunities in the key sectors (2019—2024)
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Southern Africa’s Cannabis Industry a “go” but Still Needs More Attention to Stand Out
Overview:

Legalisation of Southern Africa’s cannabis industry for medical and industrial purposes has created a bit of interest within the sector, with several states looking to capitalise on this opportunity through foreign investment.

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Governments are looking to earn funds through attracting investment, operating license fees, foreign exchange earnings for produced wares and taxation of operating firms. Another upside to legalising the sector is the jobs the sector will create, all the way from farming to processing and where possible trading. Birguid’s recently concluded a report on Southern Africa’s cannabis market which profiled six markets (South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Lesotho and eSwatini) estimates the industry’s revenues at just over US$1 billion (2019).

Despite the size of the market, most of this revenue is accounted for by the recreational market (between 85 and 95%) with all of the cannabis for this segment being traded on the illicit “black” market. Save for South Africa which has legalised recreational cannabis for private cultivation and consumption, all the other states have not legalised cannabis for recreational purposes. “This trend could prevail during the forecast period based on the stigma associated with cannabis,” said James Maposa, the study’s analyst. “As an example, a recently concluded survey in eSwatini reported that over half of the 1200 respondents felt that cannabis (for recreational purposes) should stay a banned substance as it comes with the risk of addiction and associated knock on effects. This thought process has, therefore, resulted in governments only legalising the growing of cannabis within respective countries for medicinal purposes.”

“An opportunity does, however, exist to legalise and regularise the industry’s recreational segment,” notes Maposa. “Perhaps taking a leaf out of the Netherlands playbook to understand how they legalised recreational cannabis within their country is one of the steps that can be looked into. First off, growers of the crop (mostly small-sized farmers) can be protected from a fair pricing standpoint. Respective governments could benefit from tax revenues and the consumer will also be protected through the buying of products that are regulated and standardised.” Another opportunity would be to create employment through “cannabis tourism” (which already exists in Malawi albeit illegally). However, instituting such an approach would require further research and a compelling case to overcome that stigma that currently exists for the crop.

“The medicinal cannabis segment is poised to witness the strongest growth during the forecast,” states Maposa. Currently, most if not all of the investment is being poured into developing this segment of the market. Zimbabwe, for example, is currently reviewing 37 applications for medical cannabis operating licenses. “The key to success for this segment is to build a sizable local market,” suggests Maposa. “Currently most of the legalising governments are pushing for the grown crops and processed products to be shipped abroad to destinations such as the Netherlands, Canada and Australia. But to fully sustain growth and progression of the industry, the local market must account for between 40 and 60% of total consumption by about 2030. This can only be achieved through greater collaboration amongst respective governments’ health ministries, local pharmaceutical companies, and medical professionals. The conduct of exhaustive research is critical to inform the development of products that can replace existing drugs and sustain further development of the sub-region’s medicinal cannabis industry.”

The industrial cannabis segment also has potential but still requires more to be done from a research standpoint. “Viability is an issue that needs to be addressed for this segment of the market to justify investment,” states Maposa. “As things stand, there’s a lot of hype centred around the cannabis industry, including its use for industrial purposes but its viability is a question that has not been fully answered. Comparative studies should, therefore, be commissioned that understand why it makes economic sense to, for example, make clothes using hemp instead of cotton. If the numbers are good, then investment into developing this segment of the market should be considered,” Maposa concludes.

“In conclusion, yes there is opportunity for Southern Africa’s cannabis industry but more needs to be done across each segment with regards to legislation, structuring and regulation, research and market development,” suggests Maposa. “Getting more definitive answers that inform how best to take advantage of existing opportunities is a recommended next step. Finding these answers requires greater collaboration between private and public sector stakeholders within each of the profiled states to come up with solutions that are mutually beneficial and viable over the longer-term.”
Southern Africa’s Cannabis Market report includes:
  • Introduction and market overview, total and across each of the six states
  • Market research methodology and approach,
  • Historic market analysis (2015-2019)
  • Value chain analysis,
  • An analysis of market dynamics
  • Market segmentation (recreational, medicinal and other (industrial)
  • Five-year forecasts of market trends and market growth (2020-2024), and
  • Overview of key projects across each of the profiled market
  • Conclusions and recommendations to be implemented during the forecast period (2020-2024)
Why buy this report?
  • Gain intelligence on this high growth potential industry
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and challenges,
  • To better understand the changes within the industry and how they will affect growth,
  • Inform business strategy and market development,
  • Inform sales and supply strategies,
  • Inform industry partnerships and collaborations
  • Inform investment decisions
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South African Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Market Analysis Abstract
Overview:

On average, South Africa’s LPG market generates between ZAR8 and ZAR9 billion per annum driven by electricity supply challenges which have prompted industrial, commercial, and

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domestic end users to switch to the fuel. Our research uncovered that entities such as LPG suppliers can approach Eskom and other independent power producers to offer them LPG as a backup energy source instead of diesel / petrol. This could create significant short-term opportunity for existing market participants and raise potential for medium- and longer-term demand with power producers as a priority end-user sector.

Local consumption is expected to continue to outstrip supply and this in its own should encourage both existing and potential industry participants to invest in capacity expansion; particularly during the longer-term where the gap between supply and demand is expected to exceed 100 thousand tonnes per annum. In addition, imports of LPG into SA have grown at a CAGR of 44% between 2015 and 2018. Based on forecasts provided in the research, for the years 2020 to 2024, it is anticipated that imports will continue to trend upwards as current suppliers will not be able to sustain the increase in industry, commercial and domestic end-user demand. Our research reveals that there is only one major capacity expansion project being rolled out with an expected commission date of June 2020. This intervention in, our opinion will not plug the growing demand gap during the forecast.”

Birguid forecasts modest revenue growth for the sector between 2020 and 2024. However, more income can be generated by the sector depending on industry participants’ risk appetite. For instance, targeting provinces where uptake is currently low could accelerate revenue growth for existing participants. Market entrants on the other hand are expected to benefit from downstream opportunities through the improvement of distribution models, particularly last mile delivery.

Our research uncovers the latest market trends and future potential of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market in South Africa with the aim of enabling market participants and investors to identify and understand competitive threats and make informed decisions for the future.

The South African LPG Market report includes:
  • Market research methodology and approach,
  • Historic LPG supply and demand trends and revenue generated,
  • Market size of the South African LPG Market (2018/19),
  • Value chain analysis of the South African LPG Market (2018/19),
  • An analysis of market dynamics,
  • Market segmentation by province,
  • Market shares of key LPG producers in South Africa,
  • Five-year forecasts of market trends and market growth (2020-2024), and
  • Conclusions and recommendations to be implemented during the forecast period (2020-2024).

Why buy this report?
  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders,
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and challenges,
  • To better understand the changes within the industry and how they will affect growth,
  • Inform business strategy and market development,
  • Inform sales and supply strategies,
  • Inform industry partnerships and collaborations
  • Inform investment decisions
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Sub-Saharan Africa Agriculture Market Analysis
Overview:

Agriculture is an important engine of growth for the region's economy. In Sub-Saharan Africa, approximately 70 percent of agriculture outputs are used as intermediate products in the

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manufacturing sector. Agriculture is the major economic sector in Sub-Saharan Africa and employs an average of 52.6 percent of the working population.

There are various factors which influence the type of agricultural activity which different countries in the Sub-Saharan African region conduct. The major determining factors are climate and topography. Climatic factors encompass temperature, rainfall, humidity, and other weather-related phenomena. Establishment of irrigation schemes is highly beneficial to Sub-Saharan African countries as it helps to minimize reliance on unpredictable rainfall, which has become more erratic due to the impact of climate change. Irrigation helps to increase the land under cultivation, as well as extend agricultural seasons by enabling two crop cycles to be implemented.

Currently only 4 percent of land in Sub-Saharan Africa (26.1 million of 679 million hectares of arable land) is under irrigation due to the lack of enough investment in the management of water resources. Topography covers aspects such as altitude (distance above sea level), soil type, water availability (or lack thereof). As an example, East African region's high altitude and acidic soils provide ideal conditions for growing cocoa, with Ethiopia and Uganda accounting for 62 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa's coffee production.

This report focuses on South Africa, Ghana and Ethiopia's agriculture market, to obtain insight into how the markets are structured as well as opportunities which investors can capitalise on.

The Sub-Saharan Africa Agriculture Market Analysis covers:
  • Analysis of key economic indicators in South Africa, Ghana and Ethiopia (2019)
  • Value chain analysis for South Africa, Ghana and Ethiopia (2019)
  • Growth drivers and restraints for the agriculture sector (2020-2024)
  • Key agriculture support programmes and initiatives in South Africa, Ghana and Ethiopia
  • Key projects and profiles of project participants in South Africa, Ghana and Ethiopia
  • Trade analysis for South Africa, Ghana and Ethiopia (2015-2019)
  • Local production analysis in the three countries
  • Market forecasts (2020-2024)
  • Strategic recommendations for market opportunities in the sector
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Southern African Tourism
Southern African Tourism Industry Analysis
Overview:

The tourism sector has an extensive value chain that stimulates economic activity in other sectors, such as services and the creative and cultural industries. In 2019, Southern Africa's

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tourism industry contributed 35% to regional GDP, accounting for 49% of international tourist arrivals and 16% of tourism industry employment in Africa. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has devastated global travel and trade, and Southern Africa has not been spared.

For travel distribution and intermediary businesses operating in Southern Africa, the restrictions on movement have disrupted revenues. Between April and July 2020, international air traffic declined by more than 80%, with associated airport revenues declining by at least 45%. Hotels are operating at occupancy levels below 20%, which has resulted in losses that range in the billions and counting. More short-term pain is on its way for the sector as it still faces a significant period of constrained activity, which will be relaxed once measure have been developed to mitigate COVID transmission risks.

Birguid forecasts that Southern Africa's tourism sector contribution to GDP for this year (2020) will dip significantly with a subsequent impact being a massive shedding of jobs. However, more needs to be done to increase local (in-country) and regional demand for tourism products and packages as market growth will largely be driven by the uptake of travel for leisure within the domestic market. The key challenge within the domestic market is the prevailing perception that tourist experiences are expensive and only intended for the international market. Therefore the public and private sectors are challenged to develop Southern Africa's tourism sector with the domestic tourist in mind, considering aspects such as pricing, marketing, branding, tailored experiences and local community inclusion.

Our research uncovers the trends and future potential Southern Africa's tourism sector with the aim of enabling market participants and investors to identify and understand the opportunities that may arise within the sector.
The report considers;
  • Current trends within Southern Africa's tourism industry, including recent developments and their likely impact on the industry's future;
  • Market drivers, restraints and investments into the industry and how this will impact market growth;
  • Three (3) country markets are profiled with the study being limited to the Southern African region;
  • Market forecasts in revenue terms for the years 2020 to 2024; and
  • Strategic conclusions for both local and foreign investors and market participants.
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